Middle East: Syria

MIDDLE EAST

Dr. A. F. Alhajji, Contributing Editor, Boulder, Colorado

Syria

Although strong man Hafez Al-Asad died in June 2000, Syria still lives in his shadow. His son, President Bashar Al-Asad, promised economic reform when he was inaugurated after the death of his father, but the elder Asad’s shadow prevented such reform. Syrians are paying the price of meaningless, exceptionally slow reform through high unemployment (10 – 30%), low income, depleted oil resources and widespread corruption.

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Beset by growing population and declining oil production, Syria may become a net oil importer within 10 to 12 years. Nevertheless, higher oil revenues helped the economy grow 4.2% in 2001.

Exploration. Syria plans to intensify its exploration efforts over the next 20 years. "The Oil Ministry plans to expand its explorations between 2001 and 2020," said Oil Minister Maher Jamal. Western experts expect Syrian reserves to last only 10 years without new discoveries. Based on plans announced last year, Syrian Petroleum Co. should, by now, have begun producing 5,000 bopd and 7.1 MMcfgd from the Kishma East tract that was relinquished by Ireland’s Tullow Oil in 1997.

Drilling / development. The number of wells drilled increased slightly, to 63. This number should increase 27% this year. Reports indicate that there were 19 working drilling rigs in the first half of this year.

Last July, Egypt’s Enppi signed a service contract worth $30 million to upgrade production to 45,000 bpd at Thaban and Jarnof fields, and to 35,000 bpd at Azraq-Maleh field.

TotalFinaElf and Conoco are involved in a $430-million project in northeast Syria (50% each, with Conoco as operator). The project, to be completed in September, will extract gas (that used to be flared) produced in 22 oil fields in the region. The volume will be an estimated 175 MMcfgd. The project also will develop and recycle 280 MMcfgd from Tabiyeh field.

Production. Oil production declined 1.5% in 2000, to 523,000 bpd. Various reports indicate that the Kirkuk (Iraq)-to-Banias (Syria) pipeline re-opened at the end of 2000. There are reports that Iraq is smuggling 150,000 bopd to Syria through this line. While this clearly violates UN sanctions on Iraq, Syria denies the charges. Because the pipeline is very old and had ceased operations since 1982 (when Syria supported Iran against Iraq), the Iraqi government is reportedly negotiating with Syrian officials to build a new, state-of-the-art pipeline.