EIA expects shale to drive record U.S. oil production in 2023

(Bloomberg) --U.S. annual oil production is set to rise to a record next year as shale producers continue to boost output.  

Oil supply will average 12.41 million barrels a day in 2023, according to the Energy Information Administration. That would surpass the current annual high of 12.3 million barrels a day set in 2019, the EIA said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report. The agency also lowered its production estimate for this year to 11.8 million barrels a day.

The projected rise in U.S. output would represent nine consecutive quarters of growth, beginning the last three months of 2021, the EIA said. U.S. crude production reached a monthly peak in late 2019, months before the pandemic jolted global markets and forced producers to slash output. Since then oil prices have recovered by more than 50% but major producers have been wary of bringing back supplies too quickly, keeping monthly figures below pre-pandemic highs.

“Relatively high crude oil prices should result in an ample availability of funding to support the production increase,” the EIA said in the monthly report. The agency sees domestic output surpassing 12 million barrels a day from the fourth quarter of this year. Benchmark U.S. crude futures prices have been off to a strong start to the year, adding over $5 a barrel since 2021 ended.

The agency also sees global petroleum supply rising to a record this year of 101.05 million barrels a day. That’s an upward revision from last month’s forecast of 100.93 million. The EIA expects global production will rise further to 102.8 million barrels a day in 2023.

Global consumption is set to reach 100.52 million barrels a day this year from its previous estimate of 100.46 million, according to the report. Consumption is expected to jump to 102.3 million barrels a day in 2023.