TotalEnergies warns Middle East conflict could cut 15% of its output

(WO) — TotalEnergies said ongoing conflict in the Middle East has forced the shutdown or shutdown preparation of offshore production in Qatar, Iraq and the UAE, affecting about 15% of the company’s global output. 

Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, the critical Gulf shipping corridor through which about 20% of global oil flows. Conflict in the region has sharply reduced tanker traffic and triggered one of the largest disruptions to global oil supply in recent history. Map source: Global Energy Infrastructure.

The disruption highlights the growing impact of regional instability on global oil and gas supply chains at a time when crude prices have surged above $100 per barrel.

According to the company, production from onshore UAE assets, representing roughly 210,000 bpd net to TotalEnergies, remains unaffected for now.

Despite the production losses, TotalEnergies said higher oil prices could offset much of the financial impact.

The company noted that an $8 per barrel increase in Brent crude prices would be sufficient to offset the expected 2026 cash flow contribution from its Iraq, UAE offshore and Qatar assets at $60 per barrel.

Operations at the SATORP refinery in Saudi Arabia continue normally and are supplying the domestic market, the company said.

TotalEnergies also said the shutdown of some LNG production in Qatar is expected to have limited impact on its global LNG trading portfolio, with around 2 million tonnes of LNG potentially affected in 2026.

The company said it is continuing to monitor the situation and will provide updates if conditions change.