Venezuela oil output to lag Brazil, Guyana and Argentina through 2030, analysts say
(Bloomberg) – Argentina, Guyana and Brazil remain poised to drive oil production growth in South America for years to come despite the U.S. push for investment in Venezuela, Rystad Energy says.
The consulting firm estimates flagship projects in the three countries will add more than 700,000 bpd in oil production this year, compared to a potential 300,000 bpd from Venezuela. The countries will beat out Venezuela through at least 2030, the consulting firm said.
The White House has urged U.S. oil companies to take a go-fast approach to investing in Venezuela since the brazen capture a month ago of former leader Nicolás Maduro. The country’s beleaguered oil industry, however, faces a long road to a full-fledged recovery amid political and business uncertainty.
“If the industry starts making more long-term, economically rational choices now, Venezuelan oil production could make sense in a higher oil price environment,” said Radhika Bansal, vice president of oil and gas research at Rystad. “However, more attractive barrels will still be at play, with Venezuela’s extra-heavy, emissions-intensive oil posing persistent challenges.”
Investment in Latin America’s oil industry is expected to increase in 2026, but will be primarily consolidated in projects with near-guaranteed return on investment, Rystad said. That includes greenfield projects in Guyana and Suriname, as well as further investment in Argentina’s Vaca Muerte region.
Overall, Rystad expects Latin America’s oil output to exceed 8.8 MMbpd this year, led by Brazil. Shale investment in Argentina will be a major driver of growth — the firm expects Latin America’s shale sector to near $11 billion this year, up from $9.4 billion in 2025.
See also: U.S. moves to reopen Venezuelan oil production with new general license
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