TotalEnergies sees limited Venezuela oil upside in 2026 despite U.S. push
(Bloomberg) – Reviving Venezuela’s oil industry will take years and cost billions of dollars, limiting the country’s impact on global markets in 2026, according to TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne.
President Donald Trump is exhorting American oil firms to return to the South American country and ramp up production, after deposing Venezuela’s leader Nicolas Maduro. Still, producers have raised concerns about jumping back into Venezuela with Pouyanne’s counterpart at ExxonMobil Corp. saying the country is currently “uninvestable.”
The comment by Exxon CEO Darren Woods invited Trump’s wrath on Exxon, even as other oil executives echoed his caution. TotalEnergies CEO Pouyanne said it would take years to increase Venezuela’s oil output to above 3 MMbpd from less than 1 million currently.
“I know that people want to rush there but I can understand that it will require a clear framework to be able to invest there and it will take time,” Pouyanne said at a conference in Abu Dhabi. “Maybe you could easily add 100,000 to 200,000 bpd, but if you think about 1 million bpd, it will require $100 billion.”
See also: API: Venezuela hurdles show why U.S. supply anchors global markets
Venezuela’s output has fluctuated at levels most recently around nearly 1 million barrels per day, well below the 1970s peak of close to 4 MMbbl. A resurgence would require companies to rebuild or replace abandoned rigs, leaky pipelines and fire-ravaged equipment. Oil executives also want legal frameworks and guarantees for their investments and security of their employees.
Pouyanne doubted whether Venezuela would be significant for the oil market this year.
“I’m not convinced it will have a direct impact on the market in ‘26,” Pouyanne said. “The truth is, it’s not high on my agenda.”
TotalEnergies and Exxon are among western firms that had to leave the country after the Venezuelan administration of Hugo Chavez took over their assets and operations. Chevron Corp. is the only U.S. firm still working there, under special permission that exempts it from the risk of sanctions.
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