2026 marks a reset year for oil prices and power markets, says Enverus
Enverus has released its 2026 Global Energy Outlook, projecting continued commodity price pressure, rising strain on power systems and persistent geopolitical uncertainty shaping oil and gas markets through next year.
According to the annual outlook, Brent crude is expected to average about $55/bbl in 2026, reflecting a near-term reset rather than long-term scarcity. Enverus anticipates first-half weakness followed by tightening balances later in the year as markets respond to evolving supply risks tied to Venezuela, Iran and Russia. Upstream operators are expected to continue prioritizing efficiency gains while keeping capital spending disciplined.
Natural gas markets remain comparatively constructive. Enverus forecasts Henry Hub prices averaging $3.80/MMBtu this winter and $3.60/MMBtu next summer, supported by rising power demand and LNG fundamentals. In the Permian Basin, associated gas production is projected to increase by roughly 1.1 Bcf/d by year-end 2026, driven by new pipeline takeaway capacity to Gulf Coast markets. In Europe, TTF prices are expected to hold in the $10–$12/MMBtu range as power systems rely more heavily on firm capacity and grid reliability.
The outlook highlights mounting pressure on power markets as utilities and grid operators adjust to shifting demand assumptions. Independent System Operators are tightening AI-driven load forecasts, while data centers increasingly pursue behind-the-meter generation in response to transmission constraints and regulatory reform. Enverus expects continued stress among renewable portfolios, increased divestitures and sustained M&A activity in gas-fired generation, with transaction values remaining elevated.
Overall, Enverus characterizes 2026 as a year of recalibration, with energy markets balancing lower oil prices, rising gas demand, grid reliability challenges and ongoing geopolitical risk.
