U.S. can expect drop in onshore crude output if WTI hits $50, says S&P Global

The sudden plunge in oil prices in recent days begs the question, what if WTI prices go as low as $50 per barrel?

At such a price level, U.S. Lower 48 onshore crude oil production could decline by more than 1 million b/d over 12 months, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.

“How, why, and when WTI might fall to $50 is still an open question," said Bhushan Bahree, Executive Director, Global Oil, S&P Global Commodity Insights. "It could be a long while, it could be soon, or not at all. But amid a global financial market rout, intensifying trade disputes and OPEC+’s unexpected April 3 decision to accelerate oil output increases in May, $50 oil—and the resulting impacts on U.S. production—is now a fair question to ponder.”

Prior to the April 2 announcement of U.S. tariffs, the most recent S&P Global Commodity Insights Global Crude Oil Markets Short-term Outlook base case expected an annual average price of $67 per barrel in 2025 and U.S. onshore Lower 48 production growth of about 150,000 bpd over the course of the year.