2025 crude oil production will reach 10-year high, analysts say
(Bloomberg) – A flurry of oil projects from Brazil to Saudi Arabia are set to come online this year, providing the biggest infusion of new crude production in more than a decade, according to analysts from investment firm Raymond James.
Fresh oil field output is expected to total about 2.9 million barrels a day (bpd) in 2025, up from about 800,000 barrels last year, according to data from Raymond James. That’s the most in data stretching back to 2015. Among the largest projects are the Tengiz field in Kazakhstan and Bacalhau in Brazil, as well as the Berri and Marjan expansions in Saudi Arabia. The projections for this year and next are subject to delays, and could change.
Global oil forecasters have been projecting a supply overhang for 2025 as countries including Guyana and Brazil bring on new output and OPEC+ plans to start reviving idled output in April. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies have fanned concerns about reduced global energy demand.
The US Energy Information Administration projects supply will exceed demand by 100,000 bpd this year, and the International Energy Agency sees a surplus of 600,000 barrels a day. While Raymond James didn’t provide full forecasts for production and consumption, the firm projects that supply will outstrip demand by 280,000 barrels a day toward the end of 2025.
“Investors have not fully grasped just how much new supply from projects is on deck in 2025,” said Pavel Molchanov, an analyst at Raymond James.
