CERAWeek 2025: Achieving collective thinking on the future of oil demand

There has been much talk from analysts and industry leaders of an impending plateau or peak for oil demand by 2035, or even as soon as 2030. During a strategic roundtable at this week’s CERAWeek by S&P Global energy conference, experts joined to discuss collective thinking and misconceptions surrounding the future of oil demand.

Speakers included executives and global market experts from Kuwait Petroleum Corp., ConocoPhillips, International Energy Forum (IEF), Equinor, Carlyle, Hartree Partners, and S&P Global. Through the course of the discussion, two decisive points emerged as collective truths:

• Oil demand will almost certainly reach a plateau around year 2030
• Fossil fuels will remain a prominent part of the energy mix.

“I don’t think anyone is surprised that in some sense, growth in oil demand is starting to slow,” said Helen Currie, Chief Economist for ConocoPhillips as the discussion kicked off. “In between now and 2030, we may see some choppiness where oil demand is flat or perhaps down if we have a recession, however we’re still seeing a lot of growth in emerging markets.”

Jassin Al-Shirawi, Secretary General of the International Energy Forum (IEF), spoke out strongly in favor of the need for energy security, and the vital role of hydrocarbons. “At IEF, we provide opportunity for dialogue between energy sector stakeholders,” Al-Shirawi said. “And what of the talk of moving away from fossil fuels? We see that hydrocarbons have been fueling the world for over a century now. We might see regional shifts among countries, but overall, oil demand will stay around for the foreseeable future.”

Managing Director of Kuwait Petroleum Corp. Bader Al-Attar affirmed this stance, saying “It is a sure truth that oil and gas will stay part of energy mix supplied to the world. Even if we see a decline, oil will still be there.”

When asked where Equinor sees oil demand by 2035, the company’s Senior Vice President Eirik Waerness said, “Using the word peak gives the wrong connotation here. It implies that we’ll see a sharp decline after, and that’s just not true.” In agreement with Currie, he continued, “It will be more of a plateau around 2030, and any decline after that will be moderate.”

Key factors affecting demand. When asked to name what the main driver of oil demand, energy security was the resounding answer from most panelists.

“Energy security is paramount,” said Jeff Currie, Chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways at Carlyle. “Oil trade and security go hand-in-hand.”

Offering a geopolitical perspective, S&P Global’s head of crude market research Jim Burkhard questioned how the world will react to the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Russia having a dialogue about oil. “Is oil going to be viewed as more secure or less in the coming years? This is what is going to have a huge impact on oil demand,” said Burkhard.

CERAWeek 2025 concluded Friday, March 14 in Houston, Texas, having set a new record of more than 10,000 attendees. The theme for this year's event was "Multidimensional Energy Transition: Markets, Climate, Technology and Geopolitics."