Oversupply vs. stabilization: EIA and Macquarie split on 2026 energy price forecasts

(WO) - Two major market outlooks released in recent weeks present contrasting expectations for oil and natural gas prices heading into 2026, highlighting growing uncertainty in global supply-demand dynamics.

In its November Short-Term Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts a sustained decline in crude prices as global inventories continue to build. The agency expects Brent to average $69/bbl in 2025 and fall further to $55/bbl in 2026, citing supply growth that consistently outpaces demand. EIA also sees U.S. crude production holding at a record 13.6 MMbpd through 2026, reinforcing the agency’s view that structural oversupply will pressure the market well into next year.

Macquarie Group, by contrast, sees the same oversupply emerging—but expects a more complex price pathway. In its quarterly Commodities Compendium, the firm projects WTI averaging $65/bbl in 2025 and $57/bbl in 2026, slightly higher than the EIA’s forecast. Macquarie analysts argue that visible stock builds, a surge in oil-on-water, and strengthening non-OPEC supply will force prices lower in the near term, but stress that geopolitical risks—Russian sanctions, Venezuela uncertainty, and U.S. winter weather—could inject volatility and slow the price slide.

Both analyses agree that significant global surpluses are forming. Macquarie highlights 130–230 MMbbl of oil-on-water builds since late summer, pointing to early signs of oversupply. The firm expects OPEC+ will ultimately need to pivot from its current stance and implement cuts in the second half of 2026 to steady the market.

Natural gas forecasts diverge as well. The EIA expects Henry Hub prices to climb steadily, averaging $3.50/MMBtu in 2025 and $4.00/MMBtu in 2026, driven by rising winter demand and an expanding LNG export market. Macquarie also revised its gas outlook higher but remains below the forward curve, citing confidence that U.S. production will “surprise to the upside” and keep storage adequately supplied.

Despite the differences, both organizations see a market in transition—one where supply appears resilient, OPEC+ strategy is fluid, and geopolitical pressures continue to shape price expectations. With 2026 shaping up as another year of oversupply, analysts say demand growth, OPEC action, and potential disruptions will determine how quickly the market finds balance.