Libya’s 2025 bid round and fiscal reforms revive upstream investment interest

Libya is seeking to re-establish itself as a competitive upstream investment destination with the launch of a new 2025 licensing round and revised fiscal terms aimed at attracting international oil companies, according to a new analysis from Enverus Intelligence Research. 

The bid round offers 22 exploration blocks—split evenly between onshore and offshore acreage—with an estimated 10 billion barrels of oil in place and an additional 18 billion barrels yet to be discovered. Updated fiscal terms include a discounted state take of about 66% and modeled internal rates of return approaching 20%, placing Libya among the more competitive production sharing regimes globally.

Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) is targeting oil production capacity of 2 million bpd by 2030, a more than 40% increase from current levels. Achieving that goal would require a substantial acceleration in exploration and development activity, estimated at four to six times the pace seen over the past decade.

While improved economics are drawing interest from major international operators, analysts caution that above-ground risks remain significant. Political fragmentation, payment reliability, infrastructure constraints and unresolved offshore boundary disputes continue to weigh on long-term investment confidence.

Industry observers note that sustained progress on governance, security and institutional reform will be critical if Libya is to convert its resource potential into durable upstream growth and regain its role as a major global oil supplier.