2050 oil demand to remain above 100 MMbpd despite net zero plans, ExxonMobil reports
(Bloomberg) – Exxon Mobil Corp. forecasts global oil demand in 2050 will be the same — or even slightly higher — than current levels, putting efforts to reach net zero carbon emissions by mid-century well out of reach.
Oil demand will remain above 100 MMbpd through 2050, driven by growth in industrial uses such as plastic production and heavy-duty transportation, Exxon said Monday in its annual Global Outlook.
Exxon does predict that global greenhouse gas emissions will begin to drop by 2030, as renewable energy sources continue to grow, and will fall 25% by 2050. That’s likely not enough to prevent significant climate change.
Many countries and corporations, including Exxon, have drawn up plans to reach net zero emissions by 2050. But achieving those goals is becoming harder every year, as demand for energy of all kinds continues to rise.
Exxon’s forecasts are roughly in line with other recent projections by oil industry participants. OPEC sees 116 MMbpd of consumption in 2045, while pipeline giant Enbridge Inc. predicts demand could top 110 MMbpd.
Demand will be high enough that failing to invest now in new oil and gas projects would be “catastrophic,” said Chris Birdsall, Exxon’s director of economics and energy. Without new investment, Exxon sees oil supply falling 70% to 30 MMbpd by 2030, sending crude prices soaring and decimating the global economy.
“We feel like we have to come out strong with that message, because there are activists that are pushing a keep-it-in-the-ground approach,” Birdsall said. “We can point to places where that’s starting to leak into policy. That’s really dangerous.”
