U.S. shale oil production to break record in 2025 on drilling efficiencies

(Bloomberg) – U.S. oil production will grow by 600,000 bpd in 2025, about 50% more than this year, due to higher well productivity, according to BloombergNEF.

Shale producers are pumping more oil per dollar invested in oil fields by drilling wells with fewer rigs and using better fracing techniques, BloombergNEF said in a report published Thursday. The U.S. will increase production 4.5% to a record 13.9 MMbpd next year.

BNEF’s forecast is more bullish than the 13.7 MMbpd estimated by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

“Efficiency gains, process improvements and adapting best field practices have allowed oil companies to reduce capital spending while avoiding a decline in well completions,” BNEF analyst Tai Liu said in the report.

Higher U.S. shale production comes as oil prices have dropped 17% from this year’s high in April due to lower-than-expected demand, especially from China. It’s another headache for OPEC and its allies who are considering bringing 500,000 bpd of curtailed supply back to the market in the fourth quarter.