Global oil demand to grow to 108 MMbpd by 2030 despite “peak oil” outlook, Enverus reports

(WO) — Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, has released a new report highlighting the organization’s view that it does not expect global oil demand to peak or plateau by the end of the decade.

Instead, EIR expects global oil demand to grow to approximately 108 MMbpd by 2030. Chief among their evidence is that fuel economy standards have underwhelmed their stated targets, while electric vehicle momentum appears to be slowing in the U.S.

Rising supply costs and the lack of new supply projects announced to date are likely to push oil prices higher, particularly in the post-2030 period. This, combined with off-oil measures, could result in peak demand next decade.

Overall, EIR does not see the needed material shifts in consumption per-capita trends by region and product, nor does it see the disconnect between economic growth and oil consumption needed for oil consumption to peak prior to 2030.

“Both OPEC and IEA global oil demand estimates require a significant change in consumption behavior or a reversal of off-oil measures over a short period. History is not in their favor. Instead, we believe the rate of demand growth will gradually slow but not peak. However, the regional dispersion of the growth changes dramatically,” said Al Salazar, report author and director at EIR.

“Our demand forecasts result in a world where OPEC’s influence on oil price strengthens, supporting the group’s preference for Brent prices of $85-$105/bbl,” said Salazar.

Key takeaways from the report:

• Global oil demand will not peak before 2030. Instead, growth will slow modestly, while the regional distribution of this growth will change dramatically.
• For more bullish (OPEC) or bearish (IEA) estimates for global oil demand growth to come to fruition by 2030, significant changes to consumption per capita trends and a disassociation between global economic growth and oil consumption must occur now. History is not in their favor.
• Our view results in a world where OPEC’s influence on oil price strengthens, supporting the cartel’s preference for prices of $85-$105/bbl.