How much production growth can North America deliver over the next decade?
A look at challenges and opportunities in hydrocarbon supply amid commodity price volatility
(WO) — Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, a trusted energy-dedicated SaaS company that leverages generative AI across its solutions, has released a new report that quantifies the quality of remaining drilling inventory across key North American plays.
North America is one of the few global jurisdictions that has meaningfully grown hydrocarbon production over the last 20 years. Thanks to the shale revolution, North America has added 15 MMbpd of liquid hydrocarbon and 50 Bcf/d a day of gas production to the global market since 2005. Looking forward, the globe will require the addition of approximately 7 MMbpd in liquids production and about 40 Bcf/d more in natural gas by 2030.
“We believe North America is well positioned to add approximately 2 MMbpd of liquid hydrocarbon and approximately 15 Bcf/d of natural gas production by the end of the decade at $70–80 WTI and $3.50–$4.00 Henry Hub,” says Alex Ljubojevic, EIR director. “Should lower prices persist, production growth in North America will be constrained.”
“Oil-directed drilling inventory that can generate adequate returns below $60 WTI is limited to about five years in the U.S. at current activity levels. At $70 WTI, our U.S. inventory estimates double,” says Dane Gregoris, EIR managing director. “The Canadian oil sands and Montney are home to 15 years of drilling inventory that can generate adequate returns below $60 WTI.”
Key takeaways from the report
The global economy will require an additional ~7 MMbpd of liquids production and ~40 Bcf/d more natural gas by 2030. North America can deliver 30%–40% of these incremental molecules at mid-cycle prices of $70–$80 WTI and $3.50–$4.00/MMBtu Henry Hub.
Sub-$60/bbl WTI PV-50 breakeven oil resource has become considerably scarcer in the U.S. since 2022. This is driving global investors and operators to start looking outside of the U.S. for low-cost oily locations.
Canadian plays like the oil sands and Montney are home to 15 years of sub-$60/bbl WTI PV-50 breakeven oil resource at current activity levels, nearly triple those of the U.S.
EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of Enverus products including Enverus Intelligence® Research, Placed Well Analytics and Forecast Analytics.
