IEA’s peak oil demand forecast “wilting under scrutiny,” Aramco CEO says

Mitchell Ferman, Bloomberg September 18, 2023

(Bloomberg) – Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser said even though his company’s global oil consumption forecasts have been reduced over the past decade, it still has a more bullish outlook than many observers.

Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi Aramco

Demand may rise to 110 MMbpd by 2030, compared to a projection of around 125 MMbpd that Aramco expected by then back in 2010, he said.

Even Nasser’s pared-back outlook outstrips other prominent projections, such as International Energy Agency forecasts that oil demand may top out below 105 MMbpd. The IEA’s prediction that oil consumption will peak this decade and grow at a slower rate in the near term as the energy transition gathers pace has been proven to be unrealistic, Nasser said Monday.

“This notion is also wilting under scrutiny because it’s mostly being driven by policies rather than the proven combination of markets, competitive economics and technology,” Nasser said at the World Petroleum Congress in Calgary.  “There is no quick fix” for the energy transition.

Nasser’s projection for 2030 oil demand would be a roughly 7% increase from the record consumption of 103 - 104 MMbpd he’s expecting for the second half of this year, he said. That continued usage makes it “dangerous” to try to phase out fossil fuels too quickly, he said.

Nasser isn’t alone in his bullish near-term outlook for crude demand. Last week, OPEC projected global oil markets would face a supply shortfall of more than 3 MMbpd next quarter — potentially the biggest deficit in more than a decade. The International Energy Agency projected a smaller, though still significant, shortfall of 1.2 MMbpd during the second half.

Connect with World Oil
Connect with World Oil, the upstream industry's most trusted source of forecast data, industry trends, and insights into operational and technological advances.