Oil trader expects Saudis to keep production cuts in place until oil hits $110

Christine Burke, Bloomberg October 24, 2023

(Bloomberg) – Oil trader Pierre Andurand said he expects Saudi Arabia to keep its current supply curbs in place until prices reach at least $110 a bbl.

As inventories decline in the coming months, “the market will have to beg for more supply at some point,” the founder of Andurand Capital Management LLP said during a question-and-answer session at Saudi Arabia’s Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh.

“The Saudis will have to decide when and at what price to bring supply back,” he added. “For me, an adjustment likely will come around $110 a bbl. So, there’s room to the upside for prices.”

Since July, Saudi Arabia has pledged to implement a unilateral production cut of 1 MMbpd on top of existing curbs. The kingdom earlier this month said it would keep the curbs in place until the end of the year. 

Andurand said Saudi policy remains the deciding factor for crude prices. Global benchmark Brent oil is back below $90, even as the Israel-Hamas war threatens greater conflict in the Middle East. It’s “not impossible” that there will be direct confrontation with Iran that may change the landscape, he said.

Andurand sees oil demand reaching a high later this decade, then trailing off. On the topic of metals, he warned of trouble for copper markets, as mining supply is expected to peak while demand accelerates due to the energy transition.

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