To frac, or not to frac, that is the question

What have we learned in exploration from working, not just to find commercial hydrocarbons, but also to understand fluid dynamics among fossil fuels, waters and other gases? Apparently, a lot. Look at all the new exploration occurring around the world in places no one a few years ago thought of as hydrocarbon possible. Change a few numbers slightly in material balance equations, remember how fracking horizontally made shows into reservoirs plus $70 oil, and there you go. Using the fracking method is the answer, but we should ignore the old “rules of thumb” before conducting an honest evaluation. 

Two sources of enlightenment in case you missed them: 

• Steve Metzger: CO2 conference archived presentations. This conference, which discusses reservoirs, water, and CO2 issues, is remaking the “rules of thumb.” https://co2conference.net/ 

• Blasingame: This engineer’s approach to estimating fluid dynamics in rock over time (production) is not only a reservoir standard tool but continues to be improved. You can pursue a lot of information after you examine this introduction. https://engineering.tamu.edu/petroleum/profiles/tblasingame.html 

The impact of developing unconventional gas (DUG) thinking around the world has been more than significant in exploration with the addition of reserves—including oil and condensates. But adversaries in apartments and governments continue to say, "Wait, before you start, there may be a bit more." The fight is on. 

If you think the objection to drilling on the North Slope was novel, well, think again. The area on the map (Fig. 1)—new to hydrocarbon exploration—contains many unique habitats seconded only by national parks. Wildlife agencies document that all wildlife in the parks is threatened with mass starvation, due to the devastation caused by elephant overpopulation. A typical elephant will tear down trees and about anything green, consuming about 500 lb daily. Elephants are destroying plant life on an order of magnitude beyond any oil activity. Indeed, elephant populations of over a million, 200 years ago, are now disputedly about 300,000 to 400,000, mainly concentrated in the Botswana area on the map. 

Editorial Opinion. Been there, done that. I participated in an internationally sanctioned wildlife program in the same area on the above map. We witnessed the devastation firsthand. Proper park management and national policies to protect and sustain life are controversial. A common allegation is that corruption and interference by the Euro Am members of CITES prevent beneficial conservation practices regularly used elsewhere. https://cites.org/eng/disc/what.php 

The names of CITES members and the increase in members show that few—if any—African nations get to decide their own destiny with wildlife management. Poaching ivory for the Chinese market is far more impactful than exploration. WWF claims that China's recent agreement to ban imports of ivory has reduced poaching, but killings remain near 20,000 elephants per year. https://www.worldwildlife.org/stories/two-years-after-china-bans-elephant-ivory-trade-demand-for-elephant-ivory-is-down 

So, for apartment dwellers in San Fransico making political grief for the very efforts to save elephants, those influencers do not isolate their ideology. A famous person from California even recently stated to the world that hydrocarbon exploration will always be bad. Be careful what you vote for, Fig. 2. 

About the Authors

William (Bill) Head

Contributing Editor

William (Bill) Head is a technologist with over 40 years of experience in U.S. and international exploration.