Industry at a Glance

Oil prices dipped in August—true to previous predictions by the EIA—and compiled futures prices are expected to continue to drop into September.  Of the three major crudes, Dubai Fateh suffered the largest drop (7.3%), dipping to $78.0/bbl, while WTI posted a slightly smaller loss of 6.5%, to $76.68/bbl. In a break from previous months’ trends, Brent posted the most modest decline (5.8%), to $80.36/bbl. 

The U.S. monthly production average showed a slight uptick in July—13.3 MMbpd, compared with May and June’s 13.2-MMbpd average. The increase represents a 4.8% increase from production a year ago.  Meanwhile, worldwide oil and NGLs production fell about 240,000 bpd or 0.3%. The decline can be attributed almost exclusively to reductions in Saudi Arabia and Kazakhstan.  

U.S. natural gas prices in August continued to decline, despite a brief rise earlier in the year, dipping down to an average $1.98/MMbtu. The 12-month average also declined slightly, to $2.51/MMbtu. Even so, EIA estimates suggest a slight gain for September, when final numbers are complied.  

U.S. drilling activity held steady overall in August, with a final rig count of 586—identical to July’s numbers.  Even so, individual states fluctuated, with Texas posting a nine-rig loss across districts 1, 2, 5, 6, 7C and 8A.  Louisiana, Montana, New Mexico and Pennsylvania posted single-unit losses, while California and Wyoming posted 3-rig gains.  Utah, Oklahoma and Alaska also posted single-unit gains. 

Drilled but uncompleted numbers for the U.S. returned to their usual trends in August, with a decline in total wells, as well as a continued y-o-y trend of decline. The final count for DUC wells was 3,133, with a loss of 16 units from July numbers. The Eagle Ford region once again posted the largest decline (-33.5%), with the Bakken not far behind (-22.5%). Meanwhile, the Appalachia, Permian and Lower 48 regions all posted smaller declines of 9.3%, 12.3% and 10.1%, respectively, while the Haynesville region posted the only increase (1.7%). 

International rig count. Despite some variation earlier in the year, international drilling activity held steady in July, with a slight decline bringing the world total to 1,112 units.  Nonetheless, the South America and Asia-Pacific regions posted double-digit losses, largely in their onshore units, which were partially offset by a rise in Canadian onshore units.