First Oil: Political winds shift beyond the U.S.

KURT S. ABRAHAM, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF 

But the change in direction and ousting of regimes does not seem to be confined to the U.S. We are seeing similar upheavals in Europe and Canada. In Germany, for instance, Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a confidence vote on Dec. 16, which means the E.U.’s most populous country and largest economy must hold an early election in February.  

Scholz only won the support of 207 lawmakers in the 733-seat Bundestag, while 394 voted against him and 116 abstained. He obviously did not come close to the majority of 367 needed to escape a no confidence result. The confidence vote was needed because Germany’s constitution doesn’t allow the Bundestag to dissolve itself. With the results of the confidence vote in hand, President Frank-Walter Steinmeier must decide whether to dissolve parliament and call an election. Steinmeier has 21 days to make that decision — and, because of the planned timing of the election, is expected to do so after Christmas. Once parliament is dissolved, the election must be held within 60 days.

Scholz has led a minority government after his unwieldy and ineffective three-party coalition collapsed on Nov. 6 (just a half-day after Trump’s strong victory in the U.S.), when he fired his finance minister. The two had fought over how to get Germany’s lifeless, stagnant economy back on track. Accordingly, with the coalition dissolved, leaders of several major parties then agreed that a parliamentary election should be held on Feb. 23. This will be seven months earlier than originally planned. 

Meanwhile, in France, President Emmanuel Macron is struggling for his political life in the wake of economic troubles and the country being hit with a credit ratings downgrade. French leaders have struggled to pass a budget while dealing with far-right opposition, with a third prime minister taking office within just a year.  

Macron picked centrist François Bayrou as his third prime minister of the year, yet all the old problems remain. The far right continues to gain support, while the centrists have lost considerable ground. In the meantime, the government remains in a deadlock. Despite this reality, Marine Le Pen’s far right National Rally party, which gets credit for knocking down the last government, appears to be amenable to working with the new prime minister. After meetings with Bayrou, Le Pen is reported to have said that she felt “heard” by the new leader. 

At present, France has the highest deficit among E.U. economies, so it’s not a surprise that Macron’s regime is in trouble.   

And over in Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau continues to become more unpopular by the week, with friends and foes alike calling for him to resign. Trudeau has been under intense pressure to resign since the abrupt and angry resignation of Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland on Dec. 16. If that weren’t enough, on Dec. 20, another key ally, the seven-year leader of the New Democratic Party, Jagmeet Singh, released a blistering letter, in which he promised to bring a motion to defeat the government in the House of Commons after Parliament returns in January from its holiday break. 

In essence, Singh is promising to call for a no confidence vote. If that succeeds, it would topple the government and force an election. And if an election is held, the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, are likely to win. To say that Poilievre and his fellow Conservatives are licking their political chops at the thought of an election is an understatement. They see Trudeau as being vulnerable on a number of issues. 

Not surprisingly, energy is near the top of these issues. Much like outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden, Trudeau has made climate change a central issue in his policymaking. And that emphasis on climate and renewables has made life rough for the oil and gas industry in Canada. Indeed, one could make a reasonable argument that Trudeau and his henchmen have gone out of their way to craft punitive regulations that harm the industry. If he is toppled from power, it could signal an oil and gas revival throughout Canada. Trudeau is also unpopular on a variety of other issues, including the overall economy, immigration, housing and a carbon tax. 

Trump is not the only one with non-consecutive terms. While most folks in the U.S. are aware that Donald Trump has made history by being only the second former President (after Grover Cleveland) to reclaim the White House four years after losing his initial re-election, most would not know that a similar feat has just occurred in Ghana. 

Indeed, Ghana’s former President, John Dramani Mahama, has won the country’s presidential election (held on Dec. 7) after his main opponent, Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia, conceded defeat. According to Reuters, Bawumia said in a news conference on Dec. 8, “The people of Ghana have spoken, the people have voted for change at this time, and we respect it with all humility.”  

The defeat ends two terms in power for the governing New Patriotic Party (NPP) under President Nana Akufo-Addo. Much like Trump and the Republicans, Mahama defeated Bawumia and the NPP by campaigning to fix Ghana’s worst economic crisis in years, marked by high inflation and a debt default.  

Mahama was previously president of Ghana between July 2012 and January 2017. Like Trump, his victory is historic, making him the first president in the three decades since Ghana’s return to multi-party democracy in 1992 to reclaim the presidency after being voted out. Also, much like Trump, Mahama during his campaign promised to “reset” the country on various issues and tried to appeal to young Ghanaians. 

Notre Dame Cathedral’s re-opening was impressive. While French President Emmanuel Macron may have his political difficulties, he and the French people can take great pride in the wildly successful re-opening ceremony for the cathedral of Notre Dame in Paris on Dec. 7. As many of you will remember, a large fire on April 15, 2019, destroyed the cathedral's spire and wooden roof and caused extensive damage to its interior, particularly the upper walls. 

By 11:30 pm that evening, Macron set a five-year deadline to restore the cathedral. By September 2021, donors had contributed over €840 million to the rebuilding effort. Over the next five years, in addition to rebuilding the roof and spire, engineers and artisans repaired interior walls, the Grand Organ and the damaged stained glass windows. In addition, decorative iron work and railings have were restored or replaced.  

On Nov. 29, 2024, eight days before the official reopening, Macron and his wife Brigitte, along with Archbishop of Paris Laurent Ulrich, toured the renovated cathedral, with the chief architect of France's national monuments, Philippe Villeneuve, serving as a guide to the work that was done. The two-hour ceremony on Dec. 7, featuring plenty of pomp and circumstance, was impressive and showcased the renovated building well. It also was interesting that Macron personally invited President-elect Donald Trump to attend as one of many dignitaries, with the two men sitting together during the ceremony. This aspect showcased two things: 1) The Trump phenomenon has achieved the attention and respect of many world leaders; and 2) Macron used this moment to reinforce the notion that he can be the official go-between when it comes to relations with Trump and other European heads of state. We shall see how it all plays out, come Jan. 20.  

IN THIS ISSUE 

Special focus: Well Control & Intervention. In the first article in this month’s lead theme, an author from Cudd Well Control describes how OEE insurance, a specialized policy covering well control incident costs, is also becoming a key preventative tool in the oil and gas industry.  Meanwhile, in another article, two engineers from C-Innovation discuss how the company has devised a novel hydraulic intervention methodology to access wells that are normally inaccessible by intervention vessels. And a third article from Wild Well Control features a discussion from experts at Wild Well Control and Weatherford with regard to well control considerations for a global geothermal industry. They want to avoid geothermal well blowouts that could pose a significant financial and reputational risk to developers. 

Drilling rig innovations.  In one article, several NOV authors discuss how integrated automation technologies and a proactive support network work together to optimize drilling performance. In a second article, a Salunda author describes how innovations in personnel monitoring solutions can improve crew safety and reduce operational downtime in the oil field. 

G&G technology. It’s not every day that information comes out of Ukraine about operating practices and technology implementation. Accordingly, we are pleased to feature an article from geophysical firm, Stryde. An expert from that company describes how they are trailblazing onshore oil and gas exploration in Ukraine. In this endeavor, precision and speed are paramount, especially when dealing with complex geological structures in ever-changing, geopolitically challenging environments like Ukraine.  

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