The Fossil Fuel Revue: A drama in energy acts

Douglas N. Valleau, President, Strategia Innovation and Technology Advisors, LLC; Senior V.P., Business Development, Piri Technologies LLC; and Chairman, World Oil Editorial Advisory Board 

Imagine yourself settling into a plush velvet seat as the lights dim in a grand old theater. The curtain rises, revealing not actors, but a stage set for a dramatic performance unlike any other—the future of global energy. This drama unfolds, with oil as the central character. The stage is set for the year 2050, and the audience is eager to see how the story will develop.  

The directors of this production—the IEA, EIA, and OPEC—each have their own idea for the performance. They craft elaborate scripts of supply and demand, but the supporting actors, the world's nations, often improvise and provide plot twists, making the outcome uncertain.  

Act 1: The Oil Saga. In the opening act, oil demand appears to plateau in 2025, as recent projections from BP’s 2024 World Energy Outlook suggest. The IEA anticipates that oil use in transportation will peak and begin to fall by 2026. Meanwhile, the U.S.’s EIA offers a different perspective. They assert U.S. production of petroleum and other liquids will remain above 2022 levels through 2050, and Exxon suggests oil demand in 2050 to be higher that it is today, consistent with OPEC’s expectations of 20% growth from 102 MMbpd in 2024 to 122 MMbpd by 2050. 

This growth seems plausible, as some stubborn actors in our play refuse to exit the stage; petrochemicals and aviation fuels continue to drive oil demand upward, with plastics and synthetic fibers, and fertilizers for world food production taking on leading roles. This subplot adds tension, as the U.S. remains a significant player in global oil markets. A new player enters the stage—LNG emerges as a supporting character alongside oil. LNG demand is positioned to grow through 2050 as a cleaner alternative to oil and coal, offering lower carbon emissions and a bridge to supply the world’s needs.  

Act 2: The Rise of Renewables. As the play progresses, a new cast of characters enters the stage: wind, solar and hydrogen. These renewable resources, once minor players, are now competing for leading roles. They promise a cleaner, more sustainable performance, threatening to upstage oil entirely. By 2050, renewables could account for 35% to 65% of primary energy sources, according to BP's forecasts.  

The LNG character, not to be forgotten, offers a stable energy supply when renewable sources like wind and solar are intermittent. Now, a new understudy appears waiting for a chance to take the stage. Geothermal was once restricted to specific small geographical regions. But, embracing technology from its shale oil cousins allows this new actor to take on more aspiring roles.  

Act 3: Nuclear Energy Enters the Scene. Amid the shifting dynamics onstage, nuclear energy re-emerges as a formidable character. With its potential to provide stable, low-carbon energy, nuclear power is seen as a crucial player in the quest for net-zero emissions. The International Atomic Energy Agency projects that nuclear energy could contribute 12% of global electricity by 2050. Countries like China and Russia are leading the charge, constructing new reactors and advancing nuclear technology. However, challenges remain, including public skepticism and the need for significant investment.   

Act 4: The Shadow of Energy Poverty. As the drama unfolds, the shadow of energy poverty looms large. In lower-income countries, where populations are growing and aspirations for greater mobility and consumption are rising, the demand for energy is increasing. Access to electricity, cooking fuel, and basic transportation puts pressure on all the actors to deliver their best performances. The challenge is to provide affordable and reliable energy to these regions without exacerbating environmental issues.   

Act 5: Geopolitical tensions and war. The play takes a darker turn, as global geopolitics and the threat of war enter the scene. Energy resources become pawns in a larger geopolitical chess game, with nations competing for control and influence. Conflicts over resources lead to instability, affecting energy supply chains and markets. The reliance on fossil fuels becomes a point of contention, as countries grapple with the dual challenges of energy security and climate change.  

Act 6: An uncertain future. As the final act approaches, the outcome remains unclear. Will oil make a graceful exit, or will it cling to the spotlight? Will LNG provide a bridge to transition, and will renewables, geothermal, or nuclear rise to the occasion and deliver a show-stopping performance? And how will the ever-growing world audience impact the production? This story of energy highlights the complex interplay of supply and demand, the competition among energy sources, and the evolving needs of the global population.  

Epilog: A new era of energy. In this epic production, one thing is clear: the energy landscape of 2050 will be vastly different from today's. The intricate dance of supply and demand, the push and pull of different energy sources, and the ever-changing needs of the global population will continue to shape this story. As the curtain falls on our play, we can only wait with to see what comes next. The journey toward a sustainable and secure energy future is fraught with challenges, but it also holds the promise of innovation and collaboration. Without a doubt, the much-anticipated sequel to our play will require all the available characters to provide stable and reliable energy for the audience. 

About the author

DOUGLAS N. VALLEAU is President, Strategia Innovation and Technology Advisors, LLC, and Senior V.P., Business Development, at Piri Technologies LLC. He works with energy professionals to provide geoscience and reservoir characterization, IOR, EOR and CCUS evaluations, expert testimony, and equity determination. In collaboration with Piri Technologies, Mr. Valleau provides two- and three-phase, full-reservoir conditions, core flood experiments, with simultaneous CT scan to reveal the full physics of fluid flow through porous media. He helps clients identify innovation in geoscience and petroleum engineering to explore strategic ways to achieve the energy transition, focused on value, growth and sustainability. Prior to Strategia, Mr. Valleau was Chief Geologist and Director of Unconventional Technology for Hess Corporation. He has held various management and geoscience and engineering positions with ConocoPhillips, Burlington Resources, Maxus, BHP Billiton, Monsanto, and Gulf Oil. He is a member of SEG, SPE, AAPG, Society of Professional Well Log Analysts, and the Houston Geological Society. Mr. Valleau is a certified petroleum geologist, registered in the State of Texas, and he holds a master’s degree in geoscience from the University of Florida in 1977.