Navigating the future: The U.S. offshore energy industry outlook for 2025

Erik Milito, President, National Ocean Industries Association 

As Donald Trump steps into the Oval Office in 2025, the U.S. offshore energy sector stands at a pivotal juncture. This moment isn't just about change—it's about seizing an unparalleled chance to leverage American innovation for monumental progress. We're talking about boosting economic vitality, achieving global energy leadership, instilling national pride, and protecting our environment. 

An exemplary offshore project. The groundbreaking work in the Gulf of Mexico, like Chevron’s Anchor project, which kicked off oil production in August 2024, underscores this industry's relentless pursuit of excellence. Anchor is the first deepwater high-pressure development to achieve production, employing groundbreaking 20,000-psi subsea technology to access reservoirs at depths of 34,000 ft. 

Such achievements are built on collaboration across the industry. Chevron’s Anchor development, for example, relied on Transocean’s state-of-the-art Deepwater Titan, an eighth-generation drillship equipped with a 1,700-ton hoisting system, a 20,000-psi well control system, and a 10,000-psi mud system—the first of its kind in the world.  

Other high-pressure, high-temperature (HPHT) projects, including Beacon Offshore Energy’s Shenandoah and bp’s Kaskida, are poised to follow suit, unlocking critical resources that bolster U.S. energy security and economic strength. 

Ongoing regulatory hurdles. However, while we celebrate these technical triumphs, we face critical regulatory decisions that will chart our course forward. Decisions on the Gulf of Mexico Biological Opinion (BiOp) and Rice's whale habitat are on the horizon, and it is imperative that we successfully balance environmental stewardship with energy affordability and national security. How we navigate these regulatory waters will not only shape our industry but reverberate through our national energy policy. 

A recent court ruling against the National Marine Fisheries Service’s BiOp has added to regulatory uncertainty, with potential implications for every permit and plan in the region. While the court delayed vacatur of the BiOp until May 2025 to avoid a permitting bottleneck, this timeline underscores the urgency for clear, science-driven analysis and decision-making. Similarly, the proposed expansion of Rice’s whale critical habitat—based on weak and incomplete scientific data—threatens to disrupt energy production without delivering meaningful conservation benefits. Congress and the administration must prioritize addressing these issues to ensure regulatory clarity and stability. The Rice’s Whale decision could widely disrupt all maritime vessel traffic in the Gulf of Mexico and thus impair our nation’s supply chain throughout all 50 states. 

Lease sale deficiencies. The last Gulf of Mexico oil and gas lease sale occurred in December 2023. The release of the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) in mid-December 2024 for the next Gulf lease sale is a step in the right direction, but it is clearly not enough to address the deficiencies imposed on our energy sector over the past few years. Historically, environmental work and leasing programs run concurrently to prevent gaps in leasing. pushing the next lease sale into possibly 2026.  

With only three scheduled oil and gas lease sales between 2024 and 2029, we're at risk of slowing domestic production, losing ground to international competitors, and undermining America’s energy leadership.  

To counter this, the incoming Trump administration, alongside Congress, should act decisively. Establishing a framework for regular oil, gas, and wind lease sales would provide the market with the certainty needed to attract investment, create jobs, and spur economic growth.  

Offshore wind status. Offshore wind offers tremendous potential for economic and energy security gains. With over 15 GW of offshore wind electricity contracted and $24 billion invested in the supply chain across 39 states, this burgeoning industry is generating jobs and fostering innovation. 

A prime example is the ECO EDISON, the first American-built offshore wind service operations vessel (SOV). Constructed by Edison Chouest, the vessel supports wind farm maintenance and operations, showcasing a collaborative effort involving 600 workers across shipyards in Louisiana, Mississippi and Florida, as well as components sourced from 34 states. 

Nonetheless, offshore wind’s advancement is linked to oil and gas leasing under the Inflation Reduction Act, highlighting the need to address oil and gas leasing gaps. Expanding lease opportunities for both sectors will ensure that we maintain our edge in offshore energy, especially with fierce competition from countries like China in the offshore wind space.  

Offshore CCS. Offshore carbon sequestration and critical mineral extraction also represent promising frontiers. A carbon sequestration leasing framework is nearing finalization, offering the potential to reduce emissions while generating revenue. The Gulf Coast should emerge as a CCS hub, but that means we need to get moving with the build-out of the nation’s first offshore carbon sequestration program. Meanwhile, the global energy transition demands critical minerals, many of which can be sourced from the U.S. seafloor, reducing reliance on imports from countries like China. 

The offshore energy sector transcends mere resource extraction; it's a catalyst for innovation, job creation, and environmental responsibility. It supports hundreds of thousands of jobs, generates billions in revenue for conservation and recreation, and helps reduce the national debt. Each lease sale is an investment in America's future, enhancing infrastructure, fiscal stability, and national security.  

For these opportunities to come to fruition, the Trump administration should collaborate with Congress to develop forward-thinking energy policies. Legislation mandating regular lease sales for oil, gas and wind would provide the long-term certainty needed for investment and growth. Actions like judicial review reforms and updating the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process would streamline development, cutting through litigation delays and advancing crucial projects. NEPA and the federal bureaucracy make it overly burdensome to build things in the U.S. We need to fix this and get back to leading the world in energy, infrastructure and innovation.  

This can set the stage for a balanced energy policy that supports all energy forms, ensuring a diverse, robust sector. By promoting innovation and regulatory predictability, these policies will enable the offshore industry to drive economic growth and technological advancement. 

Looking ahead, the offshore energy industry is poised to meet national goals: reducing federal debt, strengthening energy security, and maintaining global leadership. By championing policies that support growth across energy sectors, the Trump administration can redefine American energy, turning challenges into opportunities and leading with U.S. innovation. 

This isn't just a call to action; it's an invitation to envision a future where American energy leads through investment and production, where our workforce is at the forefront of innovation, and where our nation is a beacon of economic strength and environmental stewardship. 

With the right policies, the offshore sector will be fundamental to this legacy, transforming American ingenuity into lasting benefits for future generations. 

About the author

ERIK MILITO is president of the National Ocean Industries Association (NOIA), having taken the helm of the association in November 2019. He has extensive experience in implementing strategic outreach and public relations platforms for high-profile issues on behalf of the energy industry. He is a seasoned spokesperson and lobbyist, testifying before Congress on key energy issues on numerous occasions. Mr. Milito came to NOIA from the American Petroleum Institute (API), where he served for the previous 17 years. He holds a Juris Doctor from Marquette University Law School, and a BBA degree from the University of Notre Dame.