It’s The End of the World as We Know It (And I Feel Fine) - R.E.M.

The United States must end “crazy” oil and gas subsidies to achieve its climate goals. 

• John Kerry (COP28) 

Truth is still the truth even if no one believes it. A lie is still a lie, even if everyone believes it. 

• Anonymous  

“They that are fated to be fools, have one consolation, that they are fated also to be ignorant of it.” Norman McDonald, Maxims and Moral Reflections, 1910  

To consider a fair outlook for 2024, it would be instructive to reflect on the previous forecast, predictions, and guesses from a year ago for a look through the lens toward 2023. Here’s the picture from then:   

“The oil & gas industry remains in the crosshairs of a political chess game to relegate it to the ash heap of history. 2023 is projected to  continue the struggle for energy dominance – by different interests, without regard to the nation’s benefit.”   

At the risk of just repeating the unchanged political (and societal) landscape, where our industry struggles to maintain respect, the global geo-political landscape has continued to shift, which should increase the alarm intensity in every nation’s capital, especially ours. The global struggle for dominance, coupled with our national penchant for short-term attention, continues to drive toward a cataclysmic result. If that’s the forecast, what role does the fossil fuel industry play in 2024?          

In times past, the urgent message has been for the political establishment to look beyond their next war, and engage with industry to develop a coherent energy policy for the longer-term wellness of life in this country and—indeed—for the nations and their people, who (still) do not have the life-sustaining energy that we have and take for granted, and dither away opportunities to explore, develop and share.  

Fig. 1. The current regime in Washington is more enamored with talking up the perceived “ills” of natural gas cook stoves than fashioning a reasonable national energy policy. Image: Bloomberg.

Our Establishment believes that it’s more important to develop fashionable narratives around the ills of natural gas cook stoves (Fig. 1), diesel- and gasoline-powered vehicles, and the teaching of an entire generation of young people (and adults) that a worthy goal for humanity is the deletion of fossil fuels by the year 2050. The benefit to humankind is tentative at best and ludicrous under full scrutiny. But here we are (And I feel fine). 

THE POLITICAL FOOTBALL CONTINUES TO BE FUMBLED 

Focus on the critical topic of national energy independence remains blurred—on purpose. Discussion and planning for energy policy remains lost in the mix of national interests. Moving forward a year later, media and the political establishment had first determined that support of Ukraine was a national priority. Later this year, the horror of events in Israel and the Middle East took center stage. Only now has the crisis on the U.S. southern border been declared a “crisis.” Nowhere is there mention of a reasoned national energy policy to enable the wise development of the required oil and gas reserves to ensure our national security, Fig. 2. 

Fig. 2. No policy to wisely develop additional U.S. oil and gas reserves has emanated from DOE headquarters in the James Forrestal Building during the last nearly three years. Image: U.S. DOE.

But wait! As the shipping story continues to unfold in the Arabian Gulf region, then the turn through the Red Sea toward the Suez Canal, attacks on shipping and tankers are on the verge of creating a significant issue with supply chain disruptions and significant military encounters. The Houthis of Yemen report they are part of the larger effort against Israel, fueled by Iran. We consider this to be a major issue concerning the international supply of oil and gas with potential—and significant—impact on near-term international markets.  

The sponsor for these and other militant groups in the Middle East has been roundly described as Iran, and American policy has been slow to respond. The direction has been, so far, quick to pursue diplomacy, with minimum use of military force. Close personal experience with these encounters has confirmed that only one method works to resolve undesired behavior: force and the clear understanding that it is unlimited. Bullies and evil are not fair negotiators.    

Those watching and reporting on the southern border “crisis” repeatedly report on apprehensions from the terrorism watch list, with the prediction of another 9/11  event—or worse. We ask again, does it require another catastrophic event, or cascade of events, to overcome the polarization facing our energy development? And does it require another change of Administration to bring sufficient wisdom and courage to put in place a sustainable energy policy that is not ideologically driven?  

The answer to both continues to be ‘Yes,’ as we move into what will likely be the most chaotic election year in history. Referencing back to the lies and half-truths of recent political campaigns, we project that the moral value for fossil fuel development and its use will continue to be diminished. One side of the political effort will strongly endorse and support development while the opposing label will criticize and continue the Climate Change attack on fossil fuel. Meantime, the simple message that oil and gas powers the world and is clean, available, reliable, safe (CARS) should not be remembered, except when we have a national emergency.  

OUTLOOK FOR 2024 

When there’s a storm moving toward the Gulf of Mexico—or any other offshore operations area—the impacted organizations begin a well-determined pause and evacuation plan. A note from the previous year projected that perilous times lie ahead for a healthy fossil fuel industry, substantial employment opportunities, and our national security. With the absence of positive developments surrounding those points, the downward spiral continues until there may be a significant change of leadership at the national level.  

Fig. 3. Nothing symbolizes the precarious nature of U.S. energy security more than the half-filled Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Image: U.S. DOE.

Unfortunately, we are a comfortable and complacent people—generous, but not wise. One year from now, when American voters have chosen their President for the succeeding four years, we should pray for reason and wisdom to have prevailed, because in the meantime, the slow spiral toward a national emergency continues without attention, Fig. 3. It has been said that national security—undergirded by energy independence—is a hill worth dying on. That would be a preferred option to the new national language being Chinese or Russian (But Meantime, I feel fine). 

Consider tonight then, as you set your thermostat for a comfortable night’s rest, to say thank you to the hundreds of thousands of men and women working in remote oil and gas operations around the country and around the world … who keep the lights burning and the wheels turning for the rest of us. God bless the fossil fuel industry, and the nations that make it a priority for their existence and security.