Editorial comment

	Vol. 228 No. 6
PERRY A. FISCHER, EDITOR

High-power cars cache in. I saw a soldier on TV last week use the word cache, saying, “We found a cash-ay of weapons.” His common mispronunciation was immediately forgiven: He had more pressing things on his mind. Shortly thereafter, I heard some movie star pronounce it the same way, saying, “That bling-bling jewelry really gives Snoop Dog a certain cash-ay.” Of course, cache is pronounced “cash,” and cachet is a completely different word.

I apologize for the above to most of you reading this - I don’t mean to patronize. It’s just that I had trouble remembering how cachet was spelled. To borrow an old, one-line joke, in this sense, the word patronize means to talk down to someone, as when explaining something that they already know quite well.

This month, we’ll venture into the highly charged subject of electric cars. It appears that electric-powered cars, after nearly a hundred years of development, are finally ready for prime time. Batteries have reached the edge of viability in cost and energy density, and mass production by Japan will soon take place, creating further efficiencies. (Never bet against Japan’s ability to lower cost through mass production.) There are many electric cars about to come on the market, such as Tesla, Volt (GM), Phoenix, Zap, Toyota plug-ins and many more.

It took only 20 years for “rock oil” to replace whale oil for lubrication and lighting. This was, in part, because sperm whales were hunted to near extinction. It took more than 50 years for the light bulb to penetrate to 80% of the market. This was due, in part, because rural areas were not electrified, and because kerosene was a viable alternative.

Sadly for the US, Detroit was once in the forefront to build hybrid cars. But the Japanese were worthy competitors. Being short-sighted, Detroit ditched their fuel-efficiency efforts in favor of larger cars, putting millions of dollars into psychologists and marketing, convincing the public that what it wanted was bigger cars and bigger wheels. They succeeded, with some help from lobbyists and Congress, who decided to give Behemoth-Class cars special, hefty tax advantages.

Over the last 30 years, US cars have been getting heavier. Ever-larger and taller cars with ever-larger tires (and we do like to be “up there,” above everyone, don’t we?) have kept improvements in fuel efficiency stagnant. During this time, lobbying efforts were redoubled to ensure that no government-mandated increase in Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) would ever take place—and the most recent legislation is a joke. Meanwhile, Detroit toyed with lighter materials, such as composites and strong, very light, steel. All the while, dependency on oil for transportation grew steadily. Yet, even today, an increase in transportation efficiency is the quickest, surest way to lower oil consumption.

Those lightweight steels and composite materials are now at a stage where they could be mass produced and implemented. But what about all the effort spent to convince folks that bigger was better? Well, marketing genius can cut both ways, and given that the US is heavily invested in the Middle East (trillions of dollars, even excluding the wars), oil and gas are much more costly, and a clean environment is highly desirable, it is no surprise that Toyota is now, for the first time in history, the top US car seller, kicking Ford, GM and DaimlerChrysler’s proverbial butt.

The idea that people could actually believe (or be marketed into believing) that a small, highly fuel-efficient, very-low-emissions car, was a good thing to buy, was not a possibility in Detroit-think. The result was Toyota’s famous hybrid, the Prius. What the Prius did was give Toyota a reputation for energy efficiency and innovation (including the ability to self-parallel park on some models), one that has paid dividends far beyond any profits that the actual car could. Detroit failed to see this important peripheral effect. (The Economist Intelligence Unit just ranked Japan as “the world’s most innovative” country. The US was third.)

A country’s electric power infrastructure is a strategic national asset. Just ask France. It is underutilized most of the time. In the US, it operates at less than full throttle 95% of the time. According to a report by a US DOE National Laboratory (PNNL), “With the proper changes in the operational paradigm, [the grid] could generate and deliver the necessary energy to fuel the majority of the US light duty vehicle fleet [for plug-in electric hybrids].” At a minimum, 52% of US oil imports, or 6.5 million barrels a day, would be eliminated. And if recharging occurred mostly at night, it could power the entire US fleet, reducing imports even more. At a minimum, greenhouse gases would decrease 27%, and air pollution in most large cities would improve dramatically. Haven’t we been told repeatedly that the above benefits simply cannot be achieved? That batteries are far too expensive and cannot store enough electricity? That is no longer the case.

Sure, eventually, we will need more generating capacity, and if it comes from advanced-design nuclear plants, which will take at least 10 - 15 years to develop, the benefits become jaw-dropping (so let’s get started!).

Governments hold the wild card. They can affect the rate of uptake dramatically. But politicians have to balance what the public wants with what the public can have in terms of what’s possible, all the while accepting large sums of money from lobbyists and powerful interests in the status quo. The likely outcome will be a hodgepodge of slivers: a small investment in electric vehicle technology, propaganda to slow the uptake, political speeches that will mostly speak well of the technology, but will vary depending on the constituency. Basically, it will be a battle between market forces and political payola.

So, how long will it take to make the switch to electric cars? A gasoline- or diesel-powered car made today will, on average, be on the road for 13 years, longer in economically depressed countries. More than 90% of drivers travel under 100 miles a day; and at less than $1 a gallon equivalent, and with clean air as a bonus, I have a feeling that the uptake of plug-in hybrids and electric cars will, even if only by market forces, surprise everyone. I would expect this change in transportation to be more like sperm whale oil than like the light bulb.

Meanwhile, we wait for Japan to give the world its next most energy-efficient thing. Whether it’s new nuclear designs, or the soon to be released (2008) plug-in hybrid, Japan has a cache of new energy-efficient technologies. And when it comes to successfully commercializing them, the Japanese have cornered the market on cachet.