Eagle Ford shale still shows promise of greatness in variations
SAN ANTONIO, Texas -- Attendance at the Unconventional Resources Technology Conference in San Antonio may have been a bit light this week, given the continuing industry downturn, but the core group of shale experts and enthusiasts was still in evidence at this three-day event that ended Wednesday. According to show organizers AAPG, SEG and SPE, pre-conference registration was 2,400, with the total expected to go a little bit higher by the third and final day. But as multiple exhibitors noted, “the right people are here.”
This was certainly true in the technical sessions, where attendance by operator personnel was quite good, in recognition of a solid program of presentations. One of those that was heavily attended was a Tuesday afternoon session entitled, “Production and reserve scenarios for the Eagle Ford shale: A multi-disciplinary study.” The session consisted of seven inter-linked paper presentations, each covering an aspect of a multi-disciplinary study conducted by the Bureau of Economic Geology (BEG) at the University of Texas at Austin.
One of the BEG researchers, Dr. Svetlana Ikonnikova, noted in her paper presentation that the study shows that the Eagle Ford shale still holds great promise for future output and resource totals, but the magnitude of these items will all be a function of oil price. In coming up with various production and reserve scenarios, Dr. Svetlana said that her group, led by BEG Director, Dr. Scott Tinker, had based its conclusions on expected per-well production, expected completion details, and expectations on cost and productivity improvements. “We estimated profitability of each square mile, depending on prices,” said Svetlana. “In turn, profitability and well inventory maps were used to created expected drilling maps.”
Thus, several scenarios were worked up, and it is easy to see how price affects the outcome. At $40/bbl, BEG researchers estimate that the Eagle Ford could total 6.5 Bbbl of oil reserves and 32,000 producing wells. At $50/bbl, the figures rise to 8.2 Bbbl of oil reserves and 47,000 producing wells. If the price goes to $80, researchers expect 10.9 Bbbl and 83,000 wells. Finally, if the price should jump to $100, then there would be 11.3 Bbbl and 93,000 wells.
“Indeed, oil prices is the single-most significant factor in determining cumulative production,” noted BEG’s Gurcan Gulen. By contrast, he added, natural gas price has a smaller impact on Eagle Ford production, improving output only 4%. Gulen said that increasing the rate of cost improvement from 1% to 5% could boost cumulative production 10%. And increasing recovery through better EUR’s and more well locations would yield a 7% increase in cumulative production. Water disposal did not seem to be a significant factor in figuring ultimate output. Gulen said that a rise in such costs from $2/bbl to $4/bbl would only yield a 1% decline in production.
In summary, “the Eagle Ford will continue contributing to oil supply, even at current prices,” said Svetlana. “The approach we have developed shows the importance of a highly integrated and multi-disciplinary team for the comprehensive assessment.”
